Round The World

New Delhi, 13 May 2008

N-Submarine Base

CHINA ADDS TO INDIA’S WOES

By Dr. Monika Chansoria

(School of International Studies, JNU)

Trouble appears to be brewing amongst the Asian nations, including India, with China building a massive strategic underground submarine naval base that could house N-submarines and a host of aircraft carriers on Hainan Island, in South China Sea, south of Hong Kong. The base, being built near the holiday resort of Sanya on Hainan Island’s southern tip, was revealed by commercial satellite images on May 3, 2008.

According to satellite imagery reported by the Federation of American Scientists and Britain’s Daily Telegraph, the base has a sea entrance wide enough to allow submarines to enter the underground facilities with as many as 11 tunnel openings.  

Beijing seems to have circumspectly designed this new base since it stands at close proximity to vital sea-lanes in the South China Sea and Straits of Malacca. The Chinese are resolute to protect this since 80 per cent of its oil supplies presently move through the channel before traversing the South China Sea to mainland ports. In addition, the location could give China better access to disputed territories, such as the Parcel Islands and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

Furthermore, the Hainan Island underground base, incidentally, will house the new Shang-class Type 093 nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and the Jin-class Type-094 SSBNs. Moreover, the new Type 094 Jin-class submarines were captured in the images.

The Jin-class includes 12 missile silos and will be equipped with Julang-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a reported maximum range of almost 5,000 miles. The location of the base off Hainan are expected to give the submarines access to very deep waters—exceeding 15,000 feet—within a few miles, making them even harder to detect.

Refusing to confirm or deny the submarine base, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Qin Gang said, “There is no need for the Western countries to be worried, or concerned, or make any irresponsible accusations. We have a vast territorial sea and it is the sacred duty of the Chinese army to safeguard the sovereignty of our territorial sea and maritime rights and interests. China’s national defence and military building will not pose a threat to any country.”

Palpably, these developments are being monitored minutely in India since New Delhi holds significant security interests in the Indian Ocean. Expressing security concerns at China’s nuclear submarine base, Indian Navy Chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta said, “Though India is not worried about Beijing building a strategic naval base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea, it is concerned about the numbers. Nuclear submarines have long legs (traversing anywhere between 7,000-15,000 km) and it is immaterial where they are based.” Apparently, unlike conventional (diesel-electric) submarines, nuclear-powered submarines have the ability to remain submerged for long periods of time.

Incidentally, India successfully tested its 3,500 km-range nuclear capable intermediate range ballistic missile Agni-III on May 7, 2008. Agni III is capable of reaching targets in Beijing and Shanghai and is ready for induction. Although India possesses air and land-based nuclear delivery platforms in the form of ballistic missiles (Agni and Prithvi), an undersea platform such as a nuclear submarine, the third leg of a nuclear triad, remains deficient.

Indian Navy is considered to be the world’s fifth largest and New Delhi for years has been pursuing indigenous nuclear-powered submarine capability, under what is known as the ATV (advanced technology vessel) project. Moreover, New Delhi is in discussions with Moscow for a 12,000-ton Akula-II class nuclear submarine. In case it finds success, India would be the sixth country to follow the US, Russia, Britain, France and China to boast of a sea borne nuclear deterrent.

Crucially, there is a sizeable section of the strategic community within India that views China as a long-term military threat, surpassing Pakistan. China’s ‘strategic encirclement strategy of India’ is of critical significance for New Delhi where in Beijing it has built the Gwadar port, as an alternative to Karachi, beyond the easy reach of Indian Navy. Similarly, on India’s vulnerable northeast, China has a close ally in Myanmar, which will be providing China direct access to the Indian Ocean by passing the Malacca Straits. In the south, Sri Lanka is receiving special attention from China, where Beijing is developing the Hambantota port in the southern tip of the island, which dominates the Indian Ocean shipping lanes.

Even though, Chinese nuclear submarines have so far never operated in the Indian Ocean, this latest facility—which is 2,000 nautical miles away from the Andaman Islands—will be its nearest access point to the region. Given the huge volumes of oil movement between the Persian Gulf and the Malacca Straits towards North Asia, the Indian Navy has been looking to plug this deficiency.

Significantly, another crucial factor impinging on Asia’s strategic paradigm is China’s “String of Pearls” phenomenon that describes Beijing’s rising geopolitical influence through efforts to increase access to ports and airfields, develop special diplomatic relationships, and modernize military forces that extend from the South China Sea through the Straits of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and on to the Arabian Gulf.

Militarily, the US too would be intent at maintaining superior military power to guarantee security and serve as a hedge against a possible future “China threat”. In the “String of Pearls” region, US efforts are aimed at broadening and deepening American influence among the regional states, including India. There is an emerging sense that the growing defence cooperation between Washington and New Delhi could well be attributed to the commonality of the ‘China factor’.

The ‘Malabar CY 07-2’ naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal held in the first week of September last year, precisely demonstrated this and undeniably represented a major shift in India’s strategic security perceptions. The exercises were the largest-ever naval exercise in this part of the world, with as many as 30 warships and nearly 200 aircrafts from five participating nations comprising Australia, Japan, India, the US, and Singapore.

Besides, in a clear departure from the past, it signaled India’s entry into the ‘quadrilateral initiative’, a new strategic security combine in which New Delhi joins as a key member of the security triad of Australia, Japan and the US—developments that add on to Beijing’s strategic concern vis-à-vis the emerging Asian security paradigm.

Concerns emanating from the Chinese naval build-up appear to have accelerated New Delhi’s effort to achieve parity at sea> This is primarily so because it would like to avoid prospects of a number of nuclear submarines in its neighborhood and concurrently counter China’s bid for regional primacy.

Beijing’s nuclear naval facility is touted to provide it with additional leverage over Taiwan, which could directly affect the US interests in the region. Moreover, the Chinese nuclear harbour, clearly demonstrates Beijing’s bid to revamp its operational capabilities It wants to project itself as a formidable naval force in the arena—be perceived as a staid challenge by neighboring countries, including India.--INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 14 May 2008

Serial Blasts In Jaipur

RED ALERT ON TERRORISM

By Insaf

Brazen terrorism in Jaipur has blown sky high hopes of peace and an end to senseless violence from across Pakistan, despite assurances by the new leadership in Islamabad. The serial blasts on Tuesday evening in the Pink city have only confirmed the signals sent out by militant attacks two days earlier in Jammu and put the nation on alert. Seven blasts within a span of just 20 minutes in busy marketplaces and near five temples in Jaipur’s congested old city have so far claimed 60 lives and injured over 150 people. The bombs, of medium intensity with clock timers, a mixture of RDX and ammonium nitrate, were placed under bicycles and cars, pointing the needle of suspicion towards three militant outfits: Pakistan-based Laskhar-e-Toiba (LeT), Bangladesh-based Harkat-ul-Jehad-e-Islami (HUJI) or Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). In addition, not only was the attack very well coordinated, but the militant outfit ensured world attention as Jaipur is an international tourist hub.   

Regrettably, both the State and the Centre were once again taken by surprise in Rajasthan, even though security agencies suggest that there was an alert regarding “most popular tourist destination.” Other than deployment of the Rapid Action Force (RAF), the Centre has rushed National Security Guards (NSG) to Jaipur and more BSF and CRPF troops to J&K. The latter follows attack by militants near the international border at Samba, Jammu, on Sunday killing six persons, and injuring 15 others. Two militants, suspected to belong to the LeT, were killed in the fierce encounter in Samba which lasted 13 hours. The attack came close on the heels of an infiltration bid three days ago, which the BSF claimed to have foiled. However, that is not the case. The infiltrators obviously were able to negotiate the fence across the border in J&K and strike prior to the Amarnath yatra in July. With terror attacks on Jaipur and Jammu, New Delhi would need to tread cautiously with the new regime in Pakistan and focus on critical local support.  

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Disillusionment In Karnataka

Karnataka elections have failed to generate the expected enthusiasm among the voters. The past four weeks saw all political parties actively push for popular involvement. Yet the average voter turnout in the first phase of the Assembly polls for 89 seats, held on Saturday last, was a mere 60 per cent, as against 65 per cent recorded in 2004. Worse, the urban voters, whose numbers and importance has grown with fresh delimitation of constituencies, appear to be a disillusioned lot vis a vis the politicians, if Bangalore turnout is any indication. The capital city recorded just 44 per cent voting as against Bangalore rural district, which polled a record highest of 72.5 per cent. Of the 953 candidates whose fate was sealed included former chief ministers H D Kumaraswamy, former deputy CM Siddaramaiah and 10 ex-ministers.

Meanwhile, political parties are not allowing the poor turnout to dampen their spirits. The BJP, for its part, is already claiming that it has emerged “as the leader” in the first phase, thanks to an increase in the urban seats and an urban disenchantment with Deve Gowda’s JD (S). In fact, an exit poll suggests that the BJP could win 119 to 129 seats, out of a total of 224 seats, the Congress 60-64 and the JD (S) would suffer a major setback with just 20 seats. Three other reasons are being cited for the BJP scoring over its rivals: One, there is widespread sympathy for the way the BJP was “betrayed” by the Deve Gowda’s JD(S) and done out of power. Two, Mayawati’s BSP, which has put up 218 candidates, is expected to cut into the Congress’ dalit vote. Three, price rise, is a major issue which the Congress can’t wish away. Of course, opinion polls could go completely off the mark, as happened in the UP and Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.

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Shiv Sena Revives “Mumbai” Agitation

One upmanship between political parties continues to play havoc in Maharashtra. Even as the Congress-led government is dragging its feet over Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena’s (MNS) shameless and unrelenting tirade against the North Indians since February last, the Shiv Sena is gearing up to revive its 90s agitation to rename Bombay as Mumbai. On Sunday last, a dozen-odd Shiv Sainiks painted “Mumbai Scottish” on the wall outside Bombay Scottish School. The sainiks also knocked down Bombay Dyeing boards outside the company’s showroom in Worli. Balasaheb Thackray’s “Samna”, sharply rebuked institutions for still using Bombay. “Even when the whole world refers to the city as Mumbai, by using Bombay they are trying to smite the self respect and dignity of the Maharastrians.” What about the shock caused to the whole world by the insanity let loose by the Sainiks in India’s financial capital?

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Dalai Lama To Visit Arunachal

Congress Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu of Arunachal Pradesh deserves three cheers. He has imaginatively invited Dalai Lama to visit the State and leave no one in the world, especially China, in any doubt, that it is an integral part of India. The invite was extended to Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader by Khandu and his nine-member ministerial delegation on Monday last during a visit to Dharamshala, the Dalai Lama’s spiritual abode. Responding to specific media queries, the CM minced no words and said:  “We are unhappy over the situation in Tibet.” And as for his State, he asserted: “China is making an untenable claim…there is no question of a border dispute… Tawang is an integral part of India”. Khandu’s statement is certain to ruffle feathers in Beijing. But it will send a much-needed message to China, a message which should have been sternly delivered by none less than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh himself during his recent visit to the State.

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Alarm Bells Over Ganga

Alarm bells are ringing in Allahabad and Varanasi. The holy river Ganga may get reduced to a trickle! This is a feared at the Sangam, following a sharp fall in the water level of the Ganga, especially downstream from Narora, Bulandshahr district, Uttar Pradesh. The reasons being cited by engineers range from mandatory diversion of river water to different sources of irrigation, to rapid industrialization and increasing levels of pollution to steep rise in number of water users. The river, which originates from Gangotri as Bhagirathi, and is joined by Alaknanda at Prayag raj to become Ganga, is considered the lifeline of UP since ancient times. With water levels going down, its state in Varanasi is no better.  However, as summer progresses the mighty glaciers in Gangotri, in the upper reaches of Himalayas are likely to start melting, thus replenishing the river level. So, there is hope. --- INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 7 May 2008

Karnata Assembly Poll

MONEYBAGS FOR POLITICAL POWER

By Insaf

The forthcoming Assembly poll in Karnataka has thrown up a new trend in Indian politics, which is at once ugly and dangerous. More and more moneybags are actively showing interest in what is being called the “business of politics”. It’s now no longer the industrialists and liquor barons, but real estate moguls and mine owners eager to control the levers of political power. Worse, political parties are welcoming them with open arms. A quick glance at some such candidates is not only revealing but knocks out former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy, worth about Rs 50 crore, as a match. The BJP’s kitty includes G Prasad Reddy, a real estate magnate with assets worth Rs 313 crore, Hemachnadra Sagar, Rs 71 crore, Karunakara Reddy and Somashekar Reddy, both Rs 30 crore each. The Congress has Kupendra Reddy with assets worth Rs 180 crore, Anil H Lad, Rs 170 crore, H R Gaviappa, a mine owner, Rs 89 crore. Obviously, money is no constraint. Rs 10 crore in cash was seized in Bellary and sarees worth Rs 20 lakhs in Davanagere.

Clearly, the Election Commission faces a tough task in ensuring a free and fair poll. However, it has already embroiled itself over its code of conduct. Surprisingly, it has asked the BJP to delete all references to the Centre and the Congress in its three short films spotlighting rising prices and the agony of the aam aadmi. This has given the BJP a new plank in addition to the “great betrayal” by Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular). The BJP is now understandably campaigning against the EC playing the censor and violating its constitutional right of freedom of speech and thereby denying a “legitimate political debate”. On its part, the Congress is going all out to woo the voters with promises of waiver of loans, reservation for women, stipend for unemployed youth, Rs 50,000 crore investment for infrastructure development et all. The voters shall make their choice with the first phase of polling beginning today. .   

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Deshmukh Gets Reprieve

Meanwhile, the Karnataka poll has given a breather to Maharashtra’s Congress Chief Minister, Vilasrao Deshmukh. His head is no longer on the chopping block, as was the case last month, when Sonia Gandhi had sought an assessment of his Government. Instead, he has been asked by the Congress High Command to campaign for the second phase of polls on May 22 in Bijapur, Gulbarga and Bidar areas, which have a sizeable Marathi-speaking population. At home, Deshmukh has to decide what to do with Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) Chief Raj Thackeray, who is back with his tirade against north Indians. Though the Congress-led coalition Government is keen to help build the MNS as a counter to Bala Saheb’s Shiv Sena, how long can it look the other way? In a massive rally on Saturday last at Shivaji Park, Mumbai, Raj reiterated that he would not allow the outsiders to destroy Maharashtra’s culture. He even dared the Government to arrest him.

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Centre Seeks Meghalaya’s Help

Meghalaya has assumed great importance for the UPA government—at least in one core area of nuclear power. The Centre is running short of 50 per cent of nuclear fuel, which according to Union Minister of State for Power Jairam Ramesh could severely affect power projects. The Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) has estimated that it can extract about 3,75,000 tonnes of high-grade uranium ore from Domasiat in West Khasi Hills district of Meghalaya. However, it has stiff opposition from some NGOs and political parties for the past decade and more. Jairam Ramesh termed on Friday last in Shillong the shortage as a “life and death issue for India”, and appealed to the anti-uranium mining lobby to allow the mining of the precious ore. Those opposed believe that mining of uranium would endanger the locals’ health by exposing them to radiation. The Prime Minister too has personally conveyed the Centre’s wish to Meghalaya Chief Minister Donkupar Roy. Much now depends upon Meghalaya and its people.

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Manipur Villagers To Be Armed

Manipur has decided to follow in the footsteps of Chhattisgarh and Jammu and Kashmir to fight militancy. With the State having the largest casualties in the troubled North-East, the Okram Ibobi Singh government has decided to arm inhabitants of two villages—Heirok in Thoubal district and Lilong Chajing in Imphal West District to protect themselves from militants. On Friday last, his Cabinet also agreed to train and recruit 500 villagers as ‘special police officers’ as in militancy-ridden J&K. The SPOs will get a salary of Rs 3,000 per month and will be armed with .303 rifles. The decision comes in the wake of the Centre mounting concern over the deteriorating law and order situation in the State and the villagers’ demand for arms from the Government following the killing of three persons by militants in March. Manipur’s move is on the lines of the Chhattisgarh Government’s decision to set up Salwa Judum, a vigilante force, to fight the Naxalites. Ironically, the Supreme Court recently expressed itself strongly against the concept of Salwa Judum and even denounced it as violation of human rights. .  

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States Overdrawing Power

With temperatures already soaring high this summer, the demand for electricity from various States has increased. Worse, most States have started resorting to heavy overdrawal from the power grid, ignoring mandatory safety measures. The Union Power Ministry is concerned. Instead of load shedding, the States are overdrawing power thus risking a complete power collapse in the country.  In April, the States which were issued overdrawal warning include, Uttar Pradesh, 137 notices, Rajasthan, 104 such warning, Gujarat 78, Punjab 71 and Haryana 30. The demand for electricity is learnt to have increased on an average by 12 per cent and in some cases even by 20 per cent. And, is bound to go up further. The Ministry has done well in issuing the following advisory to the State governments: give priority to drinking water supply, public utility and other essential services if and when supply is less than demand.  

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CBI To Probe Rhino Poaching

Last week, the Camel made news in more ways than one. This time around it is the rhinoceros. None less than the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has been  approached by the Assam Government to look into the recent spate of poaching of rhinos in the Kaziranga National Park and Orang and Pobitora parks. So far, six rhinos have been killed this year, while 21 rhinos were poached last year. The tally adds up to 78 since 2001. The decision to involve the CBI follows allegations of involvement of international agencies in poaching incidents. The reason?  The rhino horn is in big demand as its powder is widely believed to be an aphrodisiac. It is five times more valuable than gold and fetches around $ 45,000 per kg in the international market! Kaziranga is said to have the largest number of rhinos in the world—2,000, about 80 per cent of the global population! --INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Defence Notes

New Delhi, 19 May 2008  

Agni III Missile

PROPELS INDIA IN BIG LEAGUE

By Radhakrishna Rao

The smooth and flawless test firing of the long range nuclear-capable Agni-III missile capable of hitting targets at a distance of 3,500-km early this month from the Integrated Test range (ITR)on Wheeler Island on the east coast  has come as a shot in the arm for India’s credible nuclear deterrence capability. According to sources in the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), which designed, developed and tested Agni-III, this firing has cleared the decks for its production and induction.

However, Agni-III would need to be subjected to one more flight before it is declared operational. Significantly, the trade embargo imposed by the US in the wake of Pokhran II in 1998 had impeded the pace of development of these missiles. Washington exerted pressure on New Delhi to drop the project as it was a threat to the stability in South Asia region.

Clearly, Agni-III’s successful test flight has propelled India into the select group of countries such as Russia, US, France and China which have missiles similar to Agni-III in their arsenal.

Described as a “fire and forget” missile the Agni-III is capable of computing its own trajectory and is immune to all the extraneous forces once it is launched. Perhaps the biggest advantage that India could derive from Agni-III is that this missile has given the country for the first time a clear cut capability to strike deep into the Chinese territory. Defence observers say that Agni-III could easily reach cities like Shanghai and Beijing.

As it stands China’s latest submarine launched ballistic missile JL-2 and its land- based variant DF-31 have been causes of concern for India’s defence establishment. Besides, many short range Indian missiles could easily hit urban centres of Pakistan with ease.  Notwithstanding, that Pakistan’s long range Shaheen-II missile could easily hit many cities in the northern and western parts of India.

There is no gainsaying that Agni-III’s capability has gone down well with India’s of no-first-use nuclear policy which holds that ‘nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage”. The 50-tonne heavy, 1.7 metre tall 100% indigenous all-composite Agni-III is an all solid fuel driven two-stage weapon system. Being rail mobile, it can be launched from any part of India. More than 70 Indian industrial units have contributed to its development vis-à-vis technology, systems and subsystems, components and raw materials.

As it is, Agni-III has  benefited from the technological elements developed for the short range Agni-I already inducted into the Indian army  and Agni-II which after completion of user trials is ready for induction into the services .While Agni-I has a range  of 700-kms, Agni-II has a range of 2000-km. The Agni-III is expected to be ready for test flight early next decade.

Spurred on by the unqualified success of Agni-III, the DRDO is now preparing the ground to launch a project aimed at developing longer range Agni-V missile capable of hitting targets at a distance of 5,000-km. “The development process has already begun and in the next two years the design should be ready” quipped a senior official of the DRDO.

The Agni-V would derive most of its sub-systems from Agni-II. But they would need sufficient scaling. Also on the anvil is a plan to develop Agni-IV as an intermediate step between Agni-III and Agni-V. Besides, the Agni-V would need to be thoroughly evaluated for severe thermal environment and other factors while on flight.

Significantly, the long term goal of the DRDO is to achieve Multiple Independently Retargettable Vehicle (MIRV) capability .But achieving MIRV capability could pose a serious technological challenge in terms of the size and weight of the warheads. The DRDO has also a plan to develop a hypersonic missile, the technology developed for which could have civilian spin offs in the form of a low cost satellite launch vehicle and an ultra fast civilian aircraft.

Asserted another DRDO official, “We have the capability to go in for even longer range missiles but it is for the political leadership to take a decision.” As things stand now, developing the ICBMs (Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles) capable of hitting targets beyond the range of 10,000-kms is well within the country’s capability.  India’s advances in launch vehicle technology as highlighted by the success in pulling off multiple launches and the ground covered in developing heavy lift-off vehicles could smoothen the country’s plan to develop a range of ICBMs in the near future.

Yet another feather in the cap of DRDO is the progress, though modest, achieved in giving a shape to India’s nuclear capable submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM). As envisaged, the Indian SLBM whose initial range would be around 750-km, is expected to be ready by early next decade when India’s own nuclear submarine would hit the blue oceans.

Meanwhile, the DRDO is hopeful of testing its EXO Interceptor which forms a part of its BMD (Ballistic Missile Defence) system in July. This would be followed by another test involving both the EXO and ENDO interceptors in tandem in Sept-October. As it is, the Indian BMD system has gone through two successful test flights in Nov 2006 and Dec 2007.  In sum, as India’s missile programme progresses from strength to strength, an old adage needs to be recalled:  If you are strong in your defence, your adversary will think twice before any misadventure. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)